Oil Market: The oil market is anticipated to be largely balanced in the first half of 2024 if Saudi Arabia extends its additional voluntary supply cut through the end of the first quarter. Brent is expected to remain above $80/bbl during this period, with a tighter market forecasted in the latter part of 2024, pushing Brent prices to average slightly over $90/bbl in the second half of the year. The downside risk includes the Saudis choosing not to extend their voluntary cuts and potential geopolitical tensions.

European Natural Gas: European natural gas storage started the 2023/24 heating season at record highs, and slow storage drawdown suggests it will end the season between 45-50% full. Despite being lower than the previous winter, it remains comfortably above the five-year average. This indicates limited upside in European gas prices through much of 2024, assuming gas demand stays around 15